All out to win

Dear all,

I can’t believe how long it’s been since my last post in 2012. Some of my readers and fellow bloggers appear to have disappeared altogether; perhaps they hit a difficult losing streak or just got fed up with blogging or something else? Whatever the case I hope it’s not the former as I can certainly relate to what that feels like, one or two people may have seen my sporadic betting patterns at the 2011 festival resulting in me wiping out my entire bank in the course of the four days. To say I get carried away in festival week is an understatement; this is an issue I am facing head on as ultimately it results in me undoing the season’s hard work.

I went on to lose more by the end of my last post, by this time I was losing heart in the blog and the posts don’t tell the whole story in terms of profit/loss. My staking was way over the top for the size of my bank, something else I’ve addressed, however I can’t resist a large bet sometime if I really like one!

The 2013 flat season has been good and I’ve ended it with a flourish. Since my break from here I didn’t bet for almost a year and during that time and this seasons flat I have amassed a new betting bank for the forthcoming NH season.

Writing the blog certainly helps think through my selections so once again I’ll be posting up my major selections here.

Roy

14:10 Southwell Bonnie Prince Blue £50 e/w 16/1

Backing him for the reasons I explained recently, he has gone on to lose again since but I believe connections are persevering and it will be especially interesting if money arrives this afternoon. I believe he could prove to be well handicapped today.


16:10 Southwell Mawaakef £200 e/w 10/1

Smart sort Colour Guard from the Johnston yard makes his handicap debut here today and may prove to be well in off his current mark. Has only won a weak maiden and I wasn’t overly impressed with speed he showed that day also goes from less than ideal draw and is upped in trip so I can see connections exercising possible caution with this one today and at the current price he looks to have been over hyped. Instead I’d prefer to side with Mawaakef, a smart performer at 2 years old over in Ireland put in some good performances up to and including group level. Ran in some decent handicaps last summer all of which were on ground that was too quick for him. Certainly looks to appreciate some give in the surface and may be suited to the fibresand he meets for the first time here today. Ran well on reappearance at Lingfield last September under a typical Joe Fanning ride, travelled well for much of the race eventually unable to see out the trip of 10f to finish 4th against some in form horses. Was unable to get his favoured position out in front from widest draw again over 10f at Lingfield last time out, again travelled well that day but found traffic problems on the run in preventing him from producing his run Fallon not going hard on him thereafter finishing up in 12th.. Jockey Freddie Tylicki is 4 from 18 rides with the trainer and is well versed round here and should be able to angle the selection from his draw out front early and see them off from the front the stiff mile very much suited. Locally trained Follow the flag may pose the biggest danger as he goes well round here and is the only serious hold up performer in the race, however I think he’s lost a couple of yards of pace these days and may find the rest(who I expect to set a decent gallop throughout) hard to peg back today. The rest look to have a bit to find and I’ll take the selection to at least make the frame comfortably today.

17:10 Southwell Brown Pete £200 win 28/1

A slow to mature type, looks a miler – 10f horse Southwell’s stiff mile will be in his favour. His mark has continued to tumble and races off a career low mark of 58 for the first time in 0 – 60 company here today. Continued to disappoint since winning a decent maiden over in Ireland. Joined Richard Guests yard in December and I can forgive him his first run for the yard over a trip that probably stretched him too much. Finished 3rd in a claimer over 1 mile at Kempton after that, the form from that race was better then the result suggests as he travelled up for much of the race with eventual winner Encore un Fois, a horse I still believe is open to plenty of improvement. His last run possibly came too soon having badly missed the break and having to make up considerable ground early on he didn’t travel too badly for much of the race and faded in the final furlong, has had a break since and it will not take a great deal for him to get in front of this field which is full of ungenuine horses from trainers who are really just there for a day out.

Bank = £755

15:10 Taunton Wings of Smoke £300 e/w 20/1


Impressive looking sort who should make up into a decent chaser in his time. Was impressed with the way he raced last April at Aintree over 2m4f won with plenty in hand that day. Plenty will try to make the running in this which will benefit the selection who should sit comfortably in this bigger field. I think the race looked as though it came too soon for him on his penultimate outing and the heavy ground didn’t help last time out on reappearance over 2m4 at Ffos las, nevertheless he travelled well for much of the race and the step back in trip will benefit tomorrow, will surely come on for that run and Trainer Tim Vaughn looks to be revving up for his usual February successes, he has a 23% s/r with Richard Johnson who also has a 20% s/r round Taunton, Jockey knows this one well and everything looks set for a big run on a track which I think suits this one's running style.

16:30 Southwell Bonnie Prince Blue £100 win 18/1

At home on the fibresand this veteran is now racing of a career low mark of 56, Was putting in decent performances round here this time last year off marks in the high 70’s against course specialists such as Punching and Ingleby Arch. Since switched yards twice and is yet to make an impact for his latest. Looked as though he was spared the race last time out round here after starting slowly from the widest draw, that was after a long 2011 campaign and he has since been given what was probably a much needed rest. Wouldn’t take his best to get involved with this field and if fit looks a good opportunity for small yard to get amongst the winners tomorrow.

Bank = £1505

Short of time today, but just a quick note to say i've backed the following this morning. I will bring this blog fully up to date after the weekend.


1:30 Cheltenham Royale's Charter £200 win 14/1

Race comment:jumped slowly 1st, mid-division, headway and in touch when fell 4 out ## Fell sp 14/1

14:05 Cheltenham Tartak £100 e/w 16/1

Race comment:chased winner to 6th, outpaced 11th, soon behind ## Last sp 22/1

14:20 Doncaster Artic Wings £200 win 9/1

Race comment: held up in rear, headway 3 out, chasing leaders when blundered next, weakened before last ## 4th sp 9/2

14:50 Doncaster Wayward Prince £150 win 9/1

Race comment:held up well in rear, some headway 4 out, never dangerous ## 7th sp 11/2


Good luck to everyone who's playing on what should be a cracking day's racing,

Roy

Bank = £755

Bank = £1725

14:00 Hereford Dannancey’s hill £100 e/w 9/1

All eyes will be on Destroyer Deployed with improvement expected after his defeat to the useful all the aces lto, I thought he was flattered by that performance and I’m unconvinced he’s ready for the step up in trip today. I’d prefer to side with Dannanceys hill, A smart looking sort who won a decent point to point over 3 miles in Ireland last April. Showed a good attitude when repapering in November finishing second in a bumper at Uttoxeter over a trip that was too sharp, folded tamely when sent off favourite lto when upped in trip, Travelled well for much off the race only towards the end he shaped as though the run may have come too soon. Will be better for this, ground is ideal, and the added experience of Timmy Murphy who is 10 from 56 with the trainer could see further improvement today.

Race comment:held up in rear, headway on inside from 6th, went 5th before 2 out, no impression before last, stayed on flat, went 3rd towards finish ## 3rd sp 11/1


14:20 Kempton Grand Theft Equine £200 win 6/1

Not a straightforward ride, timing is key and today’s field should provide his best opportunity yet to get off the mark. Has had a tendency to pull too hard in his races. Has suffered due to lack of pace in his last three outings, His last race when stepped back to 1 mile showed more of his potential when Jockey Stephen Craine finally managed to get him settled, the hold up tactics nearly paying off despite the less then ideal gallop, headed late on but showed good speed and a better attitude that day, Today’s race should be run at a decent tempo and I believe if connections employ the hold up tactics with Craine on board once again he’ll come off the pace well, for me he could be well handicapped.

Race comment:held up, effort 2f out, soon ridden and no impression ## 8th sp 13/2

15:50 Lingfield £100 win Dozy Joe 9/1

Showed ability at 2 and caught the eye on reappearance at 3 when contesting a race over 6f at Kempton last may, held his own up to the line against the useful Instance. Connections clearly picked up on this improvement having entered him into a couple of big handicaps over the summer, in which he was outclassed on both occasions, reappeared at Lingfield in November and shaped as though something was amiss that day, never getting into contention. Again outclassed in a conditions race lto over 7f at Kempton, back in this grade over what I think is his preferred trip of 7f, with the speed he’s shown consistently throughout his 3yo campaign I think he should be able to get competitive today, plenty of pace in this which will help as will any improvement with the 1st time visor.

Race comment:always in rear ## Last sp 9/1


Bank =£1505

Bank = £2375

14:20 Southwell Ivory Jazz £100 e/w 16/1

A horse not without his problems, he put in a couple of decent performances for Dean Ivory, notably last Aril when after an absence of over 600 days he sprung a surprise over 1 mile at Kempton, Showed a good attitude that day to beat two useful in form types benandonner and Jake the Snake. Handicapper over reacted awarding him an opening mark of 87 when making his debut for new yard over 10f at Chester last may. Races off a more realistic mark off 74 today with underrated Jockey Nora Looby claiming a further 7lbs, What is interesting to me is he hasn’t yet raced on easy ground and judging by his action he could be suited to it, whether he acts on the fibresand remains to be seen however he pedigree would suggest he has a good chance of doing so. Went hard after a 172 day absence 10 days ago over 10f at Lingfield notably travelled well throughout the race looking slightly one paced towards the end, probably needed that run and looked as though the step up in trip will suit. Plenty to prove but at 16/1 looks a good e/w prospect.

Race comment:led early, clear with leader 9f out, ridden over 3f out, weakened final furlong ## 6th sp 16/1

14:30 Kempton Cloudy Start 8/1 £200 win

Previously had ability over 7 and 8 furlongs on turf, seems to have lost a yard or two in pace, which was evident throughout his 2011 campaign, increasingly stepped up in distance throughout the year, the furthest being 1m6 back in November, was stretched too far that day and has since had three runs in moderate company at Linfield, a track on which he has never been his best at, He was shuffled back early on his last outing and disadvantaged throughout, in a race run at a muddling pace, he was denied a passage through when staying on well after having to make up plenty of ground on the home straight.
I believe he has a race in him over today’s trip and with the exception of allanit few of these will want to set any pace, this will suit the selection as I believe from stall 8 he will need to come across forcing him to race handily, a position which he has shown in the past can work to his advantage, Jamie Osborne has his stable in good order and may have placed this one well in here off a dangerous mark.

Race comment:held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, stayed on well, never nearer ## 6th sp 6/1

16:10 Leciester Grassfinch £250 win 14/1

Mujamead is currently favourite but is worth opposing for me, he’s better over two miles and I believe he’ll struggle with the conditions here today. David Pipe’s runners at Leicester have to be respected, he runs Painter man (2nd fav) in this. I remain unconvinced however, particularly by his attitude and the fact he’s prone to errors, which I think today’s stiff task will once again bring out of him. I willing to take them both on with the Mare Grassfinch, she wasn’t disgraced on reappearance at Fontwell back in December, came on for that run to put in a good performance at Warwick lto, not given a hard time that day she finished 18 lengths back to the useful Kaffe, travelled and jumped well for much of the race. An opening mark of 107 looks fair she should be spot on for this, and she looks the type who will take to what I believe will be a stiff test here today

Race comment:in touch, lost place 2nd, well behind after 6th, pulled up before 3 out ## PU sp 10/1

Bank = £1725

Bank = 55.5pts

16:10 Yarmouth Huff and Puff 4pts win 12/1


Slow maturing, powerful type who looks built for today’s trip. Given too much to do last time out when bringing the field along at a strong pace, travelled well only to lose out to useful prospect Palazzo Bianco. A much steadier pace expected in this and if Fallon (who is 13 from 52 with trainer and has a 20% s/r here) can angle him in from his good draw behind Thubian and Roccafella (who I expect to lead throughout) his superior travelling speed should see him bang their over a course which should be much suited to his style.

Race comment:keen tracked leaders, ridden over 3f out, outpaced over 2f out, switched right over 1f out, kept on towards finish ## 7th sp 8/1

16:20 Ayr Zenella 4pts e/w 33/1

Put in some good performances as a 2yo including winning a listed contest over 1mile at Pontefract last October. Not disgraced on reappearance in July in a listed contest over 7f at Chester found the trip two sharp that day but showed she had trained on filled out and looked impressive physically. Hasn’t settled well early on in her last two starts and not knocked about as a result. Should be suited to the steady pace on offer here today and I do find the step up to 1m2f interesting as all three starts this year have been over 7f which she has clearly found too sharp plus 1st cheeckpieces could help her regain focus. Very well thought of by connections and has showed plenty of ability at home and for me may fit the profile of a seasonal filly, producing her best towards the latter end of the season, at the price I’ll take a chance that she can reproduce it here today.

Race comment:led, ridden and headed over 2f out, soon weakened ## 10th sp 20/1

Bank = 47.5pts