Thursday, 23 February 2012

14:10 Southwell Bonnie Prince Blue £50 e/w 16/1

Backing him for the reasons I explained recently, he has gone on to lose again since but I believe connections are persevering and it will be especially interesting if money arrives this afternoon. I believe he could prove to be well handicapped today.

16:10 Southwell Mawaakef £200 e/w 10/1

Smart sort Colour Guard from the Johnston yard makes his handicap debut here today and may prove to be well in off his current mark. Has only won a weak maiden and I wasn’t overly impressed with speed he showed that day also goes from less than ideal draw and is upped in trip so I can see connections exercising possible caution with this one today and at the current price he looks to have been over hyped. Instead I’d prefer to side with Mawaakef, a smart performer at 2 years old over in Ireland put in some good performances up to and including group level. Ran in some decent handicaps last summer all of which were on ground that was too quick for him. Certainly looks to appreciate some give in the surface and may be suited to the fibresand he meets for the first time here today. Ran well on reappearance at Lingfield last September under a typical Joe Fanning ride, travelled well for much of the race eventually unable to see out the trip of 10f to finish 4th against some in form horses. Was unable to get his favoured position out in front from widest draw again over 10f at Lingfield last time out, again travelled well that day but found traffic problems on the run in preventing him from producing his run Fallon not going hard on him thereafter finishing up in 12th.. Jockey Freddie Tylicki is 4 from 18 rides with the trainer and is well versed round here and should be able to angle the selection from his draw out front early and see them off from the front the stiff mile very much suited. Locally trained Follow the flag may pose the biggest danger as he goes well round here and is the only serious hold up performer in the race, however I think he’s lost a couple of yards of pace these days and may find the rest(who I expect to set a decent gallop throughout) hard to peg back today. The rest look to have a bit to find and I’ll take the selection to at least make the frame comfortably today.

17:10 Southwell Brown Pete £200 win 28/1

A slow to mature type, looks a miler – 10f horse Southwell’s stiff mile will be in his favour. His mark has continued to tumble and races off a career low mark of 58 for the first time in 0 – 60 company here today. Continued to disappoint since winning a decent maiden over in Ireland. Joined Richard Guests yard in December and I can forgive him his first run for the yard over a trip that probably stretched him too much. Finished 3rd in a claimer over 1 mile at Kempton after that, the form from that race was better then the result suggests as he travelled up for much of the race with eventual winner Encore un Fois, a horse I still believe is open to plenty of improvement. His last run possibly came too soon having badly missed the break and having to make up considerable ground early on he didn’t travel too badly for much of the race and faded in the final furlong, has had a break since and it will not take a great deal for him to get in front of this field which is full of ungenuine horses from trainers who are really just there for a day out.