Monday, 7 February 2011

After a weekend of no betting opportunities I like the look of a couple today.

Bank = £10,325

14:25 Lingfield

Not til Monday £400 win 2/1

Showed good pace to comfortably finish 10 lengths clear on heavy ground at Plumpton Lto looks to be improving, has made the frame on all 3 starts over hurdles and should be capable of the step up in trip. Creswell crusader looks the main danger, ran a couple of good races, one to win at Chepstow on heavy ground and one to finish 2nd at Warwick lto, makes his hurdling debut today and should get the trip but I’ve concerns that he may not appreciate the smaller field and prefer to see how he handles the jumps today. For me the selection looks a better sort and has the added experience of Timmy Murphy on board. With big question marks over the rest I think the selection is well handicapped in this company and I’ll take him to race up with the pace and draw clear.


Race comment: led at decent pace, narrowly headed 3 out, stayed challenging, driven to slight lead 2 out, kept narrow advantage under strong pressure, in command flat, stayed on well, driven out##WON

Returns: £800

16:45 Lingfield

Kalamill £400 win 10/3

Kalamill has shown signs of ability and is well thought of by connections, he finished a decent second at Fontwell back in October, was then dropped straight into a grade 2 event at Cheltenham and a highly competitive grade 1 at Chepstow. Outclassed both times but back in this company he should be comfortably beating his rivals. Can’t see the pace being particularly strong which should suit the selection and with his running style I think he could go well round here. The main danger for me is Top smart who finished 2nd in a very average race at Folkestone lto when drawing well clear of the field with Oscar Prairie on fairly testing ground. That form was suspect however with Top smart being virtually unchallenged for the whole race, and finishing well beaten by the odds on shot Oscar Prairie who has looked distinctly average on his subsequent two outings. Poor recent stable form also has to be taken into account. I think he may also find this track a little on the sharp side and possibly needs further still. Can’t see anything else getting into this, and I’ll take the well bred Kalamill to win this well.

Update: Top smart put in a good effort to win.

Race comment: held up in touch, headway to chase leading pair 7th, went 2nd going well on long run to 2 out, driven and tried to challenge between last 2, no extra and held flat## 2nd

Bank £10,725