Friday, 25 February 2011

Back = £9,925

Warwick 15:15 Tricky Tree £400 win 3/1

A nice looking sort who found his feet over hurdles winning impressively by 10 lengths at Huntington lto. Travelled and jumped really well that day putting his rivals to the sword including the useful and well treated Chilli Rose. That race was run in good time in testing conditions so today’s ground shouldn’t be a problem. Can’t see them going a fast pace which shouldn’t be a problem as I expect him to race prominently which could be an advantage round here in this company. For me Baseford Bob will be the main danger and will have his supporters (currently odds on), a nice type he ran well to finish 1 ½ lengths back to the useful King of the Knight at Doncaster lto. Watching his action I still think he could do with firmer ground then he gets today to produce his best. Also I think he may struggle with the lack of pace, and is more suited to a faster track. So I’ll take the selection who looks well handicapped to win this well.

Update: Ran well enough eventually getting beaten by 1/2 a length.

Race comment: tracked leading pair, ridden to challenge 3 out, led before next, hard pressed last, headed narrowly flat, kept on until no extra near finish**2ND

16:25 Warwick Federstar £250 win 14/1

A horse not without its problems but recovered from injury to enjoy further success over hurdles, including notching up 3 handicap wins in a row last year
Was first sent novice chasing In Oct last year, given an easy time first start over fences. He then appreciated the step up in trip to put in a decent effort finishing 6 lengths to some fairly useful sorts at Uttox in conditions similar to todays. Raced in two handicaps at Aintree and Newbury thereafter, outpaced both time’s forcing him into jumping errors. (Fell at Newbury) got his confidence back when returning to Warwick over hurdles. Then finished 21 lengths back to the improving three chords Lto again outpaced causing a jumping error.
Well thought of by the trainer who has always thought of him as a potentially decent chaser, has been let down by jumping and can get easily outpaced. But I think connections could have found him the ideal race today. Should appreciate the easier fences, here, the predicted slow pace and the return to small field. Should cope well with what could become testing conditions, the test of stamina playing to his strengths as he’s slightly one paced. Ideally he needs to race out wide to make the most of his galloping stride on this sharp track, Jimmy Derham who takes of 3lbs, knows how to ride this one.
Big doubts over the rest who have shown modest form in very weak races with the exception of Tafika who showed he has stamina and jumped well to win lto at Leicester Flattered by that that form as that was very poor race and I think he’ll find this much tougher also and I think he’s better going right handed so one to oppose for me. I’ll take the selection to put in bold effort to reward connections for their persistence.

Update:I won't be backing this one again.

Race comment:disputed 2nd on inside, lost place briefly 10th, stumbled 12th, outpaced 4 out, ridden to chase leading pair after next, kept on same pace under pressure from 2 out, no impression**3RD

Bank = £9,275

Thursday, 24 February 2011

One bet today

Bank = £10,325

14:00 Huntington Dream Function £400 win 5/2

Full sister to Captain Chris, I was impressed seeing this one on her hurdling debut at Wincanton lto, 2nd to the useful looking and well supported favourite way back when, travelled strongly throughout and but for a mistake at the last would have been right there at the finish. Ground and trip today are ideal. The main danger for me will be Line freedom well bred and clearly has ability. Won impressively over 2 miles at towcester on hurdling debut has since made jumping errors on last two starts when being upped in trip. For me the selection looks a better type and has shown a better attitude and I expect she will get off the mark today.

Update:Nodded badley on landing and looked as though something was amiss so rightly was pulled up.

Race comment: in touch, tracked clear leader 3rd, close up 4th, blundered and lost place 6th, not recover and soon behind, no danger after and eased, tailed off.

Bank = £9,925

Wednesday, 23 February 2011

Nothing has caught since my last post, but I have found one bet for today.

Bank = £10,725

Kempton 20:05 Liberty Lady £200 e/w 25/1

Not straightforward by any means this daughter of Statue of Liberty fits the profile of a horse who’s slow to mature, lightly raced as a 2yo she trained on to put in some decent efforts during last years campaign winning twice over 5 furlongs albeit in fairly weak races. Always shaping as if the further trip would suit, showed a good attitude to win over 6f at Folkestone last August despite finding herself short of room. Was then entered against some fairly useful sorts over 6f at Newmarket last september, put in a good effort, finishing 3 1/4 lengths back in 6th despite racing a little freely in places. Not seen since but has proven to go well fresh and the trainer can “ready one”. Can see them going a reasonably steady pace here which should suit as she has been a little outpaced in the past, Needs to be produced late and if brought across early to race covered up she should be able to get a good position amongst these, the sharp nature of the track very much suited to her running style. This is also a reason to note the booking of Andrea atzeni who is especially good at riding a finish and knows his way round here, he should be able to get the best out of what can be a difficult ride. The selection looks a decent type and has a very respectable win + place record of 46% , that coupled with a shrewd trainer who can who knows how to place his horses, I think she can get in the mix here and at the price is worth some serious e/w interest.

Update: Put in a good effort and shaped as if needing the run, I will keep an eye on her as fully expect to recoup losses with this one.

Race comment:chased leaders, effort towards inside to chase leaders and driven over 1f out, faded inside final furlong**6TH

Bank = £10,325

Friday, 18 February 2011

One bet today.

Bank = £10,975

Wolverhampton 20:05 Unwrapit £250 win 5/1

A well bred filly, broke and travelled well eventually finishing well beaten coming back off a break over c+d on her all weather debut last month, shaped as if needing the run that day. Looked uncomfortable on the fibresand lto, broke and travelled well until hanging badly right 2 furlongs out losing her chance as a result,despite this she managed to finish 1 ¼ lengths back from the winner. 7f look's to be her trip and I also think today's bigger field should help to keep her focused (looked a little keen previously). The main danger for me will be Strictly Pink who put in a good effort to narrowly miss out to the useful looking Instance over 6f at Kempton last October. Looked a little reluctant to get here head in front when finding one too good again in Magi Stella over 6f here when sent off odd’s on lto. On the back of those efforts I’m not convinced the step up to 7f is the right one especially as she’s likely to try and set the pace,Looked a little ungenuine lto and coming back from a break is one to oppose for me. Plenty of doubts over the rest so I’ll take the selection looks a handy enough type and is potenitially well handicapped.

Race comment:soon led, headed well over 1f out, slightly impeded and switched right over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, no chance with winner, lost 2nd close home:**3RD

Bank £10,725

Thursday, 17 February 2011

Bank = £11,225

One bet today.

14:00 Ffos Las Grey Gold £250 win 10/1

Don’t have a lot of time so have to keep this brief.

Well thought of by connections, put in a good effort to finish 11 ½ lengths back over 2 miles at Towcester last December. Let down slightly by jumping that day, Absolutely hosed up lto at Hereford in testing conditions was impressed with that run, jumping had also improved. Shaped on both occasions as though a step up in trip would suit. I’d like to see him covered up today as I think the pace could be strong. Trainer is going well, the selection looks like a nice type with a good action. Other have obvious claims but I think this one is improving well and looks to be well in here, at the price a solid e/w opportunity but as usual i'm on to win.

Race comment: mid-division, headway 3 out, hit 2 out, weakened next**4th

Bank = £10,975

Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Bank = £12,125

15:50 Musselburgh Pokfulham £400 win 9/2

I was impressed with his attitude when winning a seller over 2 miles here last month, 1st time visor bringing about considerable improvement. Put in another game effort to finish 3 lengths back finishing a creditable second to the useful Santa’s son when stepped up to 2m4 here lto. Travelled and jumped well on both occasions. Needs a commanding ride so good to see Graham Lee back on board. Return to 2 miles and smaller field should suit. Should get the steady pace he needs today. For me Dontpaytheferryman rates as the main danger, Impressive on the a/w this winter and ran well to finish 2 ¼ lengths back to the useful Eradicate in the Scottish county hurdle last Feb. Slightly flattered by that as Eradicate wasn’t at his best that day(ground conditions weren’t ideal, and back fresh after a wind operation.) Hurdles races he has won (last one Nov 09) have looked distinctly average. I think he could also do with a stronger pace then the one predicted today. So is one to oppose for me.
The rest have plenty of doubts for me so I’ll take the selection to win this well.

Update:Dontpaytheferryman wins after a great move off the bend from Paul Gallagher.

Race comment:tracked winner, ridden before last, kept on same pace, always well held**2nd

15:20 Musselburgh Miereveld £500 win 11/4

Finished 21 lengths 2nd to Utravox over this trip at Towcester on second start over hurdles, clearly unsuited by the testing conditions that day and got caught out by the run in. Jumped well and put in a good effort to finish 4 ¾ back over 2m1 at Doncaster lto. Looked uncomfortable in the large field that day and for me his running style will be better suited to this track. Return to 2 miles in this company will suit, looks to be improving and certainly looks a better type then his rivals today. Really can’t see anything else getting into this. Banker bet for me.

Update:Didn't show much enthusiasm today.

Race comment:chased leaders, lost place before 4th, soon reminders, chased winner after 4 out, ridden and not fluent 2 out, soon no impression**2nd

Bank = £11,225

Tuesday, 15 February 2011

Nothing too appealing today.

One bet

Bank = £12,325

14:40 Newcastle Dallas Doll £200 win 8/1

Interesting to see this one sent here today. A half sister to supreme novice winner Sausalito bay. Should act on today’s ground, stayed on to finish 21 lengths back in a fairly decent bumper at fairyhouse over 2 miles lto. That was her first time out under rules and looked to be nothing more then a schooling exercise. Today see’s her stepped up in trip, 6f seem's a rather large step up on only her second outing but her pedigree suggests she may appreciate this distance, also the trainer is shrewd and like’s to operate in this way, which leads me to think she could be well placed in what is a weak race. Added experience of Andrew lynch who works well with the trainer is also worth noting.

Race comment:held up in rear, ridden and weakened before 3 out, fell next**lost

Bank = £12,125

Monday, 14 February 2011

One bet today

Bank = £11,325

16:00 Plumpton Pascha bere £400 win 5/2

Pascha bere £400 win 5/2

Trainer is in good form and his runners at Plumpton command respect. A nice type and useful over hurdles, 2 miles certainly looks to be his trip but in this company the extra furlong shouldn’t pose a problem. Improved markedly when fitted with cheeckpieces last 3 outings and 1st time visor should help keep him focused in this small field. Travels well which I think can help in this field as if attempting to make all I can see him outpacing his rivals. A little on the fragile side but goes well fresh and I expect stable will have him well prepped for chasing debut. Main danger for me will be Keki buku, made a good start over fences and will appreciate the cut in the ground. His jumping hasn’t been the tidiest however and for me he’s more comfortable going right handed. I also think he now needs further then this, and if sending him off to keep up with the selection can only help as pascha bear is the stronger travelling of the two. Looks a chasing type and I’ll take him to win this comfortably as a confidence booster before being sent to Cheltenham (Arkle).

Update: Keki buku fell at the 3rd, selection went on to win by 18 lengths.

Race comment:chased leader, led approaching 2nd, joined bypassing normal 4 out, briefly headed after next, clear advantage before 2 out, easily**WON

Returns £1000

Bank = £12,325

Friday, 11 February 2011

One bet today.

Bank= £11,525

13:45 Southwell Diamond sunrise £200 win 11/1

Took to the surface when finishing 5th 4 1/4 lengths back to Monsieur Jamie over 5f last November. Kept on well over 7f at wolves finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner lto, was unable to get a good position from a tough draw in that race, raced keenly and I thought she was held up for to long, I think 6 furlongs will suit her at this track and I’d like to see her allowed to run up with the pace today especially as it looks to be a strong one.
Varrazano could threaten, won over c+d lto, I wasn’t overly impressed with that as it was a poor race and she looked awkward at times. I also think to progress she’ll need further then this trip and on hadicap debut is one to oppose for me. Doubts over the rest I’ll take the selection who looks a decent enough sort, potentially well handicapped and can continue her improvement with a big run today.

Update:Never got going, finished last.

Race comment:aced wide tracked leaders, ridden to chase leader over 2f out until over 1f out, soon weakened.

Bank = £11,325

Wednesday, 9 February 2011

Bank = £11,725

Lingfield 16:10 Greenhead high £200 win 8/1

Caught the eye when finishing 5 ¼ lengths to fairly useful Loki’s revenge over c+d back in December, was forced to change direction coming off the final turn and yet made up ground with the Jockey going easy recognising he was beaten. He then showed a good attitude to win an average maiden at Kempton over today’s distance. Can forgive his last run over this c+d, didn’t get a good position and again was blocked coming out of the final turn, ran on to finish strongly finishing 2 lengths back from the winner, again the jockey not giving him a hard time. Mark Johnson’s yard are in good form at the moment and Joe le taxi is clearly improving and rates as the main danger. Won last two starts well and now gets an 11 lb hike. Both wins were against very poor opposition however and I’m slightly concerned he may be unsuited to the short run in. Should attempt to make all and being drawn next to Greenhead high can only help as the selection will appreciate the tow. Another danger could be Chevise who has won a couple of very weak claimers on his last two outings, for me that form flattered him and back up in trip I think he’ll find it tough in this company so one to oppose for me. I believe the selection is improving and is potentially well handicapped going into this. I’d like to see him produced slightly earlier then in his past two races at this track because with a predicted decent pace being set providing he has a clear passage and avoidance of the far rail coming off the final turn he can finish well to win.

Update: Chevise ran well to win leaving the selection 1 length back in 3rd.

Race comment: tracked leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd post**3rd

Bank = £11,525

Tuesday, 8 February 2011

Bank £10,725

Southwell 16:45 Mush Mir £200 win 11/2

Proving a little tricky to get right, ran a decent race when fitted with blinkers for the first time over this trip at lingfield. Never got going when stepped back in trip in an apprentice handicap. Finished 5th lto when returning to this trip hampered coming off the final bend. In his last two races he’s been guilty of burning up too much energy early on, looks vulnerable to strong hold up performers which we don’t appear to have here, plus a prominent position comes at an advantage at this track. The booking of Joe Fanning who works well with the trainer looks interesting. He does well riding these types and I think he may decide to change tactics slightly sitting the selection behind the front 2. Clues in his pedigree suggest he’ll take to the surface. Add to that the both the jockey and trainers decent record at the track and for me this one looks worth a bet. The main danger for me will be Mediterranean sea, interesting to see if this one’s held up today as I’d prefer to see him race up front as he did when winning two races last February one of those being over course and distance, hasn’t looked genuine recently, looks to be reluctant to get her head in front, thoroughly exposed I think she’ll find it tough to win off this mark. The rest have plenty of doubts for me, so I’ll take mush Mir to get it right this time.


Race comment: tracked leader, led 3f out, edged left and headed narrowly over 1f out, driven to lead again inside final furlong, asserted near finish**WON

Returns £1,300

Dipidy doo dah 15:05 £300 win 7/1

A useful looking sort and warming to her task over hurdles on previous two outings. Stayed on well to finish 9 ½ lengths back to Pilgreen in a hot maiden contest over two miles back in December. Finished 5th here lto on handicap debut. Didn’t get the smoothest of passages through the field so can be forgiven for that run. Jockey takes off 7 lbs and I believe this further trip will be ideal, if getting a decent tow she can be in the mix. No doubt connections are expecting a big run from the improving Silver Roque who ran a good race at Wincanton lto to finish 3rd to a couple of decent types. That race was run in a decent time and he travelled well, ending one paced and looking as though a step up was needed. I think this may be a little soon and I’m not convinced he’ll be suited to this track, unexposed and respected but one to oppose for me. The magic bishop is also worth a mention finished 1st lto at Newcastle, looks handy enough for this track but that was a hard race, that together with the 9lb rise and the step up in trip means I’ll oppose him today. Big doubts over the rest and at a price this looks a solid bet.

Was 9’s on betfair last night, I managed to get on at 7/1 this morning, support this morning has brought it into 9/2 with some firms at the time of writing,

Update: The Magic Bishop stayed on well to win and is one to keep an eye on. Silver Roque travelled well to finish second and the selection finished 4th.

Race comment:held up towards rear, headway 7th, chased leading duo after 3 out, hit 2 out, one pace and no impression when hit last, weakened to 4th final 100 yards**4th

Bank = £11,725

Monday, 7 February 2011

After a weekend of no betting opportunities I like the look of a couple today.

Bank = £10,325

14:25 Lingfield

Not til Monday £400 win 2/1

Showed good pace to comfortably finish 10 lengths clear on heavy ground at Plumpton Lto looks to be improving, has made the frame on all 3 starts over hurdles and should be capable of the step up in trip. Creswell crusader looks the main danger, ran a couple of good races, one to win at Chepstow on heavy ground and one to finish 2nd at Warwick lto, makes his hurdling debut today and should get the trip but I’ve concerns that he may not appreciate the smaller field and prefer to see how he handles the jumps today. For me the selection looks a better sort and has the added experience of Timmy Murphy on board. With big question marks over the rest I think the selection is well handicapped in this company and I’ll take him to race up with the pace and draw clear.


Race comment: led at decent pace, narrowly headed 3 out, stayed challenging, driven to slight lead 2 out, kept narrow advantage under strong pressure, in command flat, stayed on well, driven out##WON

Returns: £800

16:45 Lingfield

Kalamill £400 win 10/3

Kalamill has shown signs of ability and is well thought of by connections, he finished a decent second at Fontwell back in October, was then dropped straight into a grade 2 event at Cheltenham and a highly competitive grade 1 at Chepstow. Outclassed both times but back in this company he should be comfortably beating his rivals. Can’t see the pace being particularly strong which should suit the selection and with his running style I think he could go well round here. The main danger for me is Top smart who finished 2nd in a very average race at Folkestone lto when drawing well clear of the field with Oscar Prairie on fairly testing ground. That form was suspect however with Top smart being virtually unchallenged for the whole race, and finishing well beaten by the odds on shot Oscar Prairie who has looked distinctly average on his subsequent two outings. Poor recent stable form also has to be taken into account. I think he may also find this track a little on the sharp side and possibly needs further still. Can’t see anything else getting into this, and I’ll take the well bred Kalamill to win this well.

Update: Top smart put in a good effort to win.

Race comment: held up in touch, headway to chase leading pair 7th, went 2nd going well on long run to 2 out, driven and tried to challenge between last 2, no extra and held flat## 2nd

Bank £10,725

Friday, 4 February 2011

Bank = £10,525

One bet today

At the price I’m with Jamie Osborne’s Revolutionary. The trainer does well with 3yo’s here and has dropped the selection into a fairly modest looking handicap. After getting slightly outpaced over a mile here lto, watching him I thought the step up to 1m2 should suit. I’m going to oppose George Woolf who finished well over c+d lto but I thought he could have done with a slower pace that day which he’s unlikely to get today he also looked a little one paced and previously his attitude hasn’t been the best.
Lough corrib looks interesting on his handicap debut showed signs of ability in September and with his pedigree he has to be respected but plenty of question marks and I’d prefer to watch how he handles this race today.

Lingfield 16:35

Revolutionary £200 win 5/1

Update: George Woolf does the business

Race comment: held up in touch, driven to challenge over 1f out, soon weakened ** 4th

Bank = £10,325

Thursday, 3 February 2011

First entry on the blog so here's hoping for a good start in my mission to collect 20 large from the satchel boys by the end of the flat season 2011.

Starting bank = £10,000

Betting at £100 a point.

One bet today.

Southwell 14:30

Ana Emarati £300 win 7/4

Liked the look of this one when showing a good attitude to finish 1 length to the useful looking Materialism over 7 furlongs at Lingfield Lto. This is a weaker race and it’s interesting to see the switch to fibresand, Connections will be looking to recoup their losses and theirs enough in his pedigree to suggest he’ll take to the surface. If he breaks well to race prominently throughout he can overcome his rivals, the main one being for me Laugh or cry who ran an okay race over course and distance lto but I’d prefer to see him drawn closer to the rail and for me the selection looks a better type and I’ll take him to win with a few pounds in hand today.


A good start,

Race comment: made all, shaken up 2f out, pushed clear final furlong, unchallenged ** WON

Returns £825

Bank = £10,525